Analyzing the Investment Performance of Retired LEGO Sets from 2022 After 60 Days
They are outperforming the stock market by a mile, who would have thought
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Regular readers are aware that I document the performance of my personal LEGO investment portfolio here each month.
However, that portfolio only includes a select number of LEGO sets that I chose to invest in.
What about all the other sets that retired at the end of 2022?
We’re going to take a look at them. All of them.
Investment Performance
Before I start dropping the data, there are a few things you should know:
Several sets were excluded if:
There wasn’t consistent Amazon historical data
There was no Amazon listing
It was a non-typical set like an Advent Calendar
They retired in July
After crunching all the data myself, here is what I came up with.
The Overall Average Return on Investment After Selling Fees for All Sets: 18.1%
Below is all of the data broken down by theme and set.
If either of them have an ROI above 18.1%, that means it’s over-performing. If a theme or set has an ROI below 18.1%, that means it’s under-performing.
Architecture
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 29.5%
No shock here. The Tokyo set was always going to do well long term.
City
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 12.8%
A technical underperformance, but understandable given how many sets retired.
Creator
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 13.7%
Most of these sets are low-price sets, so not a surprise to see a lower number here.
DC
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 19.7%
Why did I not invest in the Batwing? Can’t believe I spaced that one.
Disney
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 36.3%
I had mentioned previously that I thought Disney sets were being slept on. This is proof of that.
DUPLO
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 24.6%
DUPLO above average, like always. One day these won’t be underrated, but they still are.
Friends
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 22.4%
I expected the same performance as City here, so this was surprise. Great to see.
Harry Potter
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 33.4%
Is anyone shocked here? I’m not.
Holiday
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 35.2%
The performance looks crazy until you see the price of the sets. While lower priced sets can make a great return, you have to sell a million of them to make a lot of money.
If the set doesn’t sell like crazy, you can easily get stuck with more than you can sell in a reasonable amount of time.
This is important to consider.
Icons
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 24.6%
No shock here, the Camper Van has been a home run.
Ideas
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 30.6%
Every single set in here is over-performing.
Jurassic World
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 0.4% (yikes)
I’ve been saying how I believe Jurassic World has a massive lack of demand and too much supply… this is proof.
Mario
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 10.3%
Most Mario sets suck. I’m surprised they made any money at all.
Marvel
Average ROI After Selling Fees: -1.6% (yikes)
No shock here. All the Avengers style sets are terrible. I only have a position in one of these, for good reason.
Minecraft
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 10.2%
Minecraft with poor results as usual. They make too much of this theme, supply-wise.
Minions
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 18.8%
As expected.
NINJAGO
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 6.8%
Disappointed to see this. I thought they’d do better. LEGO may be making too many of these… something to keep an eye on.
Speed Champions
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 7.0%
I’ve been shouting about how these sets sucked for months now. Proof is in the pudding.
Star Wars
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 28.0%
Just like Harry Potter, are we even surprised?
Technic
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 32.9%
My favorite theme is just getting warmed up.
My Personal Portfolio
Average ROI After Selling Fees: +23.7% (as of January 31st)
My portfolio is over-performing. This means I’m choosing sets wisely, considering that I’ve already booked 7% of the portfolio’s value in profit.
Summary
Let it be known that an 18.1% return on investment after only two months is an incredible rate of return.
For emphasis, had you invested $100,000 into every set on this list evenly, you’d have $118,000 after selling them all.
That doesn’t sound like much, but if this rate of growth remained the rest of the year, that $100,000 would turn into over $200,000.
Is it likely? Probably not. Is it possible? Absolutely.
Given that my portfolio was at nearly 24% at the end of last month, I like my chances.
LEGOs remain underrated as an investment strategy and I can’t get enough of them.
If you are interested in learning how to get started with LEGO investing, consider getting my in-depth guide LEGO Investing Mastery.
These posts are not financial or investment advice.
They are made for entertainment purposes only by a bum who gave up his job as a prestigious Aerospace Engineer to talk about parking money in things like LEGOs.