The 5 LEGO Sets That Will Perform Best as an Investment in 2023
These will outperform any stock or cryptocurrency you can buy.
In case you’ve been living under a rock and haven’t yet heard me talk about investing in LEGO sets, do yourself a favor and read this post.
Last week I analyzed the investment returns on LEGO sets that retired in 2021 and in doing so, highlighted aspects from those sets that indicate better than average future performance.
When you combine the two following characteristics, investment returns are wild:
Sets that have low third party competition on Amazon three months before retirement
Sets that have an MSRP of $80 or above
With this in mind, I want to share five sets that are retiring at the end of the year, that I believe will perform best.
This is not investment advice, rather I am telling you why I made the decisions I have. Do with that information as you wish.
(It should come as no surprise that I have a position in all of these already. If you read my recent portfolio update, you’ll recognize each one)
Set #1: LEGO City Passenger Airplane 60262
MSRP: $100
On October 1st, there were only 10 sellers with this set listed (besides Amazon themselves).
That is a dramatic lack of competition, which drew me to it immediately.
While many investors don’t list their inventory on Amazon right away, it’s still a statistic that has meaning across the board.
But wait, it gets better.
This set hit $220 this past March, when Amazon was out of stock for several weeks.
Once they sell out completely, that is a mere preview of what the price will do as we move through 2023.
P.S. There was a similar set that retired in 2017 that could have been easily bought for $80. It hit $275 within 12 months of retirement.
Set #2: LEGO Ideas 123 Sesame Street 21324
MSRP: $120
This set ticks all of the boxes. It is an expensive set and had less than 30 third party sellers on Amazon at the start of Q4.
Combine that with the fact that many adults grew up watching Sesame Street and you have a great investment.
In fact, as I am writing this, the set is out of stock on Amazon already and is selling for $170.
The set is still available on Barnes & Noble for $120, but probably won’t be for long.
Set #3: LEGO Volkswagen T2 Camper Van 10279
MSRP: $180
There aren’t many sets on Amazon that sell well and had less than 10 third party sellers like the Airplane set.
However, this camper van takes the cake. On October 1st, there were only THREE third party sellers.
I was ready and willing to pay retail price, before Walmart shocked the LEGO world and offered them for $90 each on sale.
Since then, short term flippers rushed to throw them on Amazon and arbitrage the difference.
In turn, the number of sellers rose to 57 while the price dipped a bit.
As I write this, there are 24 sellers and the Amazon price is sitting at $184.
At $180, I don’t like that cost basis (due to what Walmart did), but I’m happy with $120 or below per set.
This set will hit $300 a lot sooner than people think.
P.S. The first version of this camper had an MSRP of $120 and retired at the end of 2020. It hit $250 within 12 months post retirement.
Set #4: LEGO NINJAGO Legacy Ultra Sonic Raider 71739
MSRP: $80
This list wouldn’t have felt complete without something from the NINJAGO theme. It is constantly underappreciated from an investment standpoint.
I like this set for a number of reasons:
It has 7 mini-figures (which are a large value driver)
Has been buyable on the secondary market for $50-60 for months
It hit $165 last holiday season (when Amazon went OOS)
It had around 30 third party sellers on October 1st
There isn’t anything about this set that I don’t love.
Set #5: LEGO Technic Heavy-Duty Excavator 42121
MSRP: $40
If I buy a set with an MSRP below $80, it means I have an incredible amount of confidence in it.
Let me break this one down for you.
There are two similar sets that precede this one. The first one retired at the end of 2014 and doubled in value within 12 months.
The second one retired at the end of 2019 and went from $64 to $185 within 12 months.
Also, what young child doesn’t love construction equipment? Bob the Builder was a popular cartoon for a reason.
Technic is a theme that is growing in popularity as well.
The number of sellers to start Q4 was a higher amount of 51, but that isn’t even that high for a $40 set.
I have seen sets with over 200 sellers at that price point this year.
My suspicions have been confirmed early on. Amazon went out of stock a few days ago and the third party price has hit $70 already.
I own a ton of these, but I’ll always wish I bought more.
Want me to take a look at your personal LEGO investment portfolio or help you game-plan? Book a 1-on-1 session with me.
These posts are not financial or investment advice.
They are made for entertainment purposes only by a bum who gave up his job as a prestigious Aerospace Engineer to talk about parking money in things like LEGOs.
Great post! How do you find out when sets are due to retire? Do you need to get permission from Lego before selling or do they not care?