The Best LEGO Sets to Invest in that Retire in 2025 - Version 1.0
After some tweaks to my set picking system, this is what I came up with.
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IMPORTANT: A SPREADSHEET VERSION OF THE HIT LIST IS LINKED AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST
Version 1.0 means this is the first hit list for 2025.
It will change dramatically between now and July (for sets retiring then) and again by September (where I finalize the list for the year for sets retiring in December).
While I may venture outside of the list based on a gut feeling (you will be notified if I do this), these are the sets my set picking system likes at the current moment.
To create this list, I do two things:
I grab a giant list of sets expected to retire
I input Amazon sales rank data into my set picking system at let it spit out which sets it thinks will perform best
I use Amazon’s data because it is the best metric for demand in the United States that is publicly available.
Demand has a heavy correlation to price appreciation post retirement.
While other investors mention demand, I was the first (to my knowledge) to systematically track it and use it exclusively as a tool.
My favorite resource for sets expected to retire is the Bricktap Retirement Spreadsheet from the LEGOLeak subreddit.
My system has shown an ability to predict most of the top performing sets each year during retroactive analysis.
If you’d like to review how it works, read this post:
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am tweaking my strategy for 2025
Change 1: I am removing “shelf life” as a metric and therefore eliminating honorable mention sets
Change 2: I am lowering the demand score threshold to 14 from 15 (it backtests well)
All sets that meet demand requirement of my system will be a hit list set, regardless of their shelf life.
(This will make for a much cleaner list as well)
I will update the TIE #029 post soon to reflect the changes.
One big takeaway I had from 2023 retirees was how well sets performed that had a long shelf life.
My suspicion is that low shelf life sets outperformed in 2021-2022 due to supply constraints, which have now obviously normalized.
I prefer to remain nimble and adapt immediately when a market changes and this is me doing that.
The format below for listing hit list sets is as follows:
Theme
List of sets my system likes
Let’s dive in.