TIE #087: Analyzing the Supply & Demand Trends of Different LEGO Themes
This high level information is great for investing.
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Earlier this month I published a post that documented the update to my LEGO investing set picking system:
This update attempts to estimate supply based on recent historical demand and investment performance, allowing us to spot trends for the future.
I want to take some time today and highlight all of the supply & demand trends I’ve noticed as a result of this system change.
Supply & demand are the most important variables when it comes to the investment performance of a physical item.
While what I’ve calculated definitely isn’t perfect, it paints an interesting picture.
Here is the supply/demand data I calculated from 2022:
Undersupplied themes (with respect to demand) include Creator, DUPLO, Ideas, Mario, and Technic and the only obviously oversupplied theme was Jurassic.
Longtime readers will know how much I complained about Jurassic during this period.
I was begging them to reduce supply.
The ROI data is data from the end of 2024 (I only track ROI for two years post-retirement).
Here is the supply/demand data I calculated from 2023:
Undersupplied themes include Art, Creator, DC, Icons, NINJAGO, and Speed Champions.
Oversupplied themes include Disney, Friends, and Jurassic.
Technic is up there too, just not quite as good as 2022.
Here is the supply/demand data for 2024 so far… (it needs more time to marinate):
Undersupplied themes appear to include DUPLO, Harry Potter, Jurassic, NINJAGO, and Sonic
Oversupplied themes appear to include Architecture, Friends, and Mario.
Here is how every theme is trending:
The 2024 data can and will change, especially when Amazon runs out of stock of the retired sets they’re still stocking.
For now though, this is how the trend is looking.
LEGO has improved the supply balance on several themes that sucked over the last few years post retirement, while letting previous winners slip.
That can change in a heartbeat though.
If I am LEGO, I am significantly reducing the production Architecture, Friends, and Mario by a ton.
This could make some 2025 retirees perform well… you never know.
What am I going to do with this data?
Nothing outside of my newly updated set picking system, but I find it interesting and I think it will pay well to track this long term.
I hope you found it interesting.
Have a question? Leave it below.
This post is not financial or investment advice.
I am simply informing you of what I have done with my own capital.
What you choose to do with your capital is at your own discretion.
While I will always vouch for the content I publish and the ideas I teach, there are limits to what I’m legally allowed to encourage without putting myself in harms way.