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Analyzing the Investment Returns of Retired LEGO Sets from 2021 After 17 Months
A look back at how much money you would have made if you invested in LEGOs at the end of 2021.
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If you are brand new to LEGO investing, you might not know that I document several things inside this newsletter each month:
The performance of my personal LEGO investment portfolio (latest post here)
The performance of LEGOs that retired in 2021 (you’re reading this now)
The performance of LEGOs that retired in 2022 (latest post here)
By presenting this data, I am also educating myself on which trends translate into the most amount of upside when investing in LEGOs.
The online business game is a game of efficiency and there are always areas that can be improved upon.
With that said, let’s take a look at how the sets from 2021 are performing after aging for 17 months on the open market.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 37.3% (up from 32.1%)
An improvement from last month but still underperforming against the average.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 49.4% (down from 51.7%)
Just below the average and just about what you would expect from such a broad theme.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 57.3% (down from 57.3%)
In one month, Creator went from average performance to below average. I can only assume this is due to profit takers fighting it out on a few key Amazon listings.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 82.7% (down from 84.4%)
2021 DC is holding nicely with above average performance.
It is normal to see even the best performing themes take a break for a couple months, especially during summer.
People are less inclined to sit inside and build LEGOs when the weather is nice.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 59.4% (up from 29.3%)
This month, I culled some sets that had almost no data on Amazon and should have been left out from the beginning.
They were from a movie license that I would have never invested in personally.
Just like that, Disney pops up into average territory.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 44.9% (down from 45.7%)
Friends holding steady with below average performance.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 59.1% (down from 61.7%)
Harry Potter is maintaining it’s average performance, which is kind of mind boggling.
A few sets in here are really holding this theme back.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 61.4% (up from 57.9%)
Small improvement within Ideas for the month of May.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 29.3% (down from 34.3%)
A bad and over-manufactured theme continues to underperform.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 47.8% (down from 48.0%)
Below average performance continues.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 72.7% (down from 77.9%)
A couple sets softened as sellers take profit, but still maintaining above average performance.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 56.7% (up from 56.3%)
Minecraft remains average, more at 11!
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 93.5% (up from 85.4%)
I wish there were Minions sets retiring in 2023…
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 58.0% (up from 50.9%)
NINJAGO improves from below average to average… I can’t believe my eyes.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 120.4% (down from 123.1%)
Even the best performers relax once in a while.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 102.0% (up from 95.3%)
I can’t tell you how insane it is that a theme with this many sets retiring in one year has eclipsed over 100% ROI in less than a year and a half.
Star Wars is so damn good.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 104.2% (up from 100.0%)
Obvious winner remains a winner.
Average ROI After Selling Fees: 59.7% (down from 50.5%)
Technic drops from average to below average performance. This is an outlier year for the theme, in my opinion.
The crazy part? My new system (had I been using it then) says that investors should have avoided the theme entirely in 2021. Crazy!
Overall Average Return on Investment After Selling Fees for All 2021 Retiring Sets: 58.6% (up from 58.4%)
If you blindly invested $100,000 at the end of 2021 into retiring LEGO sets equally, you’d now have $158,600 after selling fees.
If you blindly invested $100,000 into the S&P 500 at the end of 2021, you’d now have $91,749.
Next week, I will be updating LEGO Investing Mastery with content that shows how I created my new set picking system.
If you already have the guide, you will get the update as a free bonus.
The next LEGO post here will show just how good the system would have been at identifying winning sets that retired 2021 and 2022.
Additionally, I will begin my last attempt at YouTube content starting next week.
I call it my last attempt because if it does not become a new habit that I look forward to doing, I don’t plan on trying again.
Despite amassing 10,000 subscribers, I have never found a recording process that didn’t feel like a gigantic inconvenience.
My new plan is to set up my phone with a microphone attached on a tri-pod, while standing, and fire away.
No editing, no lighting, that’s it.
If the content is good, people will watch. If it isn’t, I’m at peace with sticking to the written word.
If you have a question about anything discussed today, leave it below.
Until next time!
When you are ready, there are two different ways I can help you:
If you are interested in starting an efficient one-person online business, I recommend starting with one of the following:
Textbook Flipping Mastery - My in-depth guide on how to start a high-margin Amazon e-commerce business.
LEGO Investing Mastery - My in-depth guide on how to start a long-term “buy, hold, and sell” LEGO investing business.
The Conference Room - My private mentorship community that includes the two guides above, for free. Pay once and stay a member for life.
If you are interested following along with my personal LEGO investment portfolio and getting exclusive alerts when I add a new set to that portfolio:
Become a paid subscriber here (7-day free trial available)
These posts are not financial or investment advice.
They are made for entertainment purposes only by a bum who gave up his job as a prestigious Aerospace Engineer to talk about parking money in things like LEGOs.