So If a Lego set is current and selling 100+ per month, I should analyze data over time to have an informed idea of how well it will do in retirement? Or chances are that it will be selling less once it is retired, since it is selling 100+ now when it is current?
So If a Lego set is current and selling 100+ per month, I should analyze data over time to have an informed idea of how well it will do in retirement? Or chances are that it will be selling less once it is retired, since it is selling 100+ now when it is current?
So If a Lego set is current and selling 100+ per month, I should analyze data over time to have an informed idea of how well it will do in retirement? Or chances are that it will be selling less once it is retired, since it is selling 100+ now when it is current?
Total number sold doesn't tell the full story.
If it's a $10 set, the liquidity is low.
If it's a $500 set, that's not too bad.
Normalizing for price (divide units sold or Amazon sales rank by $) gives you a better idea.
This is what my set picking system does (described in posts here and inside LEGO Investing Mastery)
You are correct that when a set retires, it is almost guaranteed to sell less units than when it was still being manufactured.
The amount liquidity drops depends on set, price, theme, etc. and we cannot know that prior to retirement.
It's a safer bet to just assume that sets with high liquidity pre-retirement will have the best liquidity post-retirement.