I can’t imagine others talking negatively about what you do! I greatly appreciate all that you have put out there for people to become successful with. Super excited to start selling this Christmas and see where lego investing takes me!
So If a Lego set is current and selling 100+ per month, I should analyze data over time to have an informed idea of how well it will do in retirement? Or chances are that it will be selling less once it is retired, since it is selling 100+ now when it is current?
If a small seller wanted extra diversification, could they buy a handful of sets with lower liquidity? Or is your hit list + honorable mentions enough diversification to just go all in on.
With your example of the two sets mentioned in your post, would one set be on the Hit List and the other be an Honorable Mention? Or would the slower moving set not even make it as an Honorable Mention?
I can’t imagine others talking negatively about what you do! I greatly appreciate all that you have put out there for people to become successful with. Super excited to start selling this Christmas and see where lego investing takes me!
Appreciate the kind words. Can't wait to see how well you do.
So If a Lego set is current and selling 100+ per month, I should analyze data over time to have an informed idea of how well it will do in retirement? Or chances are that it will be selling less once it is retired, since it is selling 100+ now when it is current?
Total number sold doesn't tell the full story.
If it's a $10 set, the liquidity is low.
If it's a $500 set, that's not too bad.
Normalizing for price (divide units sold or Amazon sales rank by $) gives you a better idea.
This is what my set picking system does (described in posts here and inside LEGO Investing Mastery)
You are correct that when a set retires, it is almost guaranteed to sell less units than when it was still being manufactured.
The amount liquidity drops depends on set, price, theme, etc. and we cannot know that prior to retirement.
It's a safer bet to just assume that sets with high liquidity pre-retirement will have the best liquidity post-retirement.
If a small seller wanted extra diversification, could they buy a handful of sets with lower liquidity? Or is your hit list + honorable mentions enough diversification to just go all in on.
You definitely could if you like the set in question.
With your example of the two sets mentioned in your post, would one set be on the Hit List and the other be an Honorable Mention? Or would the slower moving set not even make it as an Honorable Mention?
Not an honorable mention by a long shot.
It would be a must avoid at all costs.